For every signal we record what actually happened 30, 90 and 180 days later — an offering, a reverse split, a delisting notice, a late filing, a restatement — and publish the hit rates. Only rows with at least 20 evaluated signals are shown; the archive started in 2026-09, so horizons fill in over time and price outcomes arrive with the price feed.
| Signal | Horizon | n | What followed (share of cases) |
|---|---|---|---|
| New 13D filer | 30d | 36 | shelf 22%, offering 17%, late_filing 14%, listing_notice 8%, reverse_split_or_charter 8% |
| 13D amendment | 30d | 133 | reverse_split_or_charter 16%, offering 14%, shelf 6%, listing_notice 4%, delisted 3%, late_filing 3% |
| Material agreement terminated | 30d | 37 | offering 22%, late_filing 11%, listing_notice 8%, reverse_split_or_charter 8%, shelf 8%, delisted 5% |
| ATM program | 30d | 273 | offering 24%, shelf 16%, reverse_split_or_charter 8%, late_filing 7%, listing_notice 7%, restatement 1%, delisted 0% |
| Cash < current liabilities | 30d | 684 | offering 24%, reverse_split_or_charter 14%, shelf 9%, listing_notice 7%, late_filing 3%, delisted 2%, restatement 0% |
| Cash < current liabilities | 90d | 158 | offering 48%, late_filing 36%, shelf 32%, listing_notice 25%, reverse_split_or_charter 20%, restatement 2%, delisted 1% |
| Convertible note | 30d | 65 | offering 37%, shelf 23%, reverse_split_or_charter 17%, late_filing 15%, listing_notice 9% |
| Delisting language | 30d | 178 | offering 24%, shelf 18%, late_filing 15%, listing_notice 15%, reverse_split_or_charter 13%, delisted 3%, restatement 1% |
| Departure cluster | 30d | 36 | listing_notice 8%, late_filing 6%, reverse_split_or_charter 6%, shelf 6%, offering 3% |
| Equity deficiency | 30d | 21 | listing_notice 33%, offering 29%, late_filing 19%, reverse_split_or_charter 19%, shelf 14%, delisted 5%, restatement 5% |
| Equity line | 30d | 76 | shelf 36%, offering 32%, reverse_split_or_charter 24%, late_filing 13%, listing_notice 10%, delisted 1%, restatement 1% |
| New debt obligation | 30d | 96 | offering 27%, reverse_split_or_charter 12%, shelf 9%, late_filing 7%, listing_notice 3% |
| Going-concern language | 30d | 493 | offering 18%, listing_notice 10%, shelf 9%, reverse_split_or_charter 8%, late_filing 1%, delisted 1%, restatement 0%, bankruptcy 0% |
| Going concern in 8-K | 30d | 45 | offering 36%, shelf 27%, late_filing 11%, listing_notice 9%, delisted 2%, reverse_split_or_charter 2% |
| Hearings panel | 30d | 46 | listing_notice 22%, offering 15%, shelf 13%, reverse_split_or_charter 11%, late_filing 9%, delisted 4% |
| Form 4 burst | 30d | 229 | offering 7%, shelf 4%, listing_notice 3%, reverse_split_or_charter 3%, delisted 2%, late_filing 1% |
| Insider open-market buy | 30d | 41 | late_filing 12%, listing_notice 10%, reverse_split_or_charter 10%, offering 7% |
| Insider buying cluster | 30d | 38 | late_filing 21%, offering 21%, listing_notice 13%, reverse_split_or_charter 10%, shelf 10%, restatement 3% |
| Insider selling before raise | 30d | 25 | offering 56%, late_filing 16%, listing_notice 12%, reverse_split_or_charter 12%, shelf 12% |
| Insider selling cluster | 30d | 53 | offering 15%, late_filing 2%, listing_notice 2%, reverse_split_or_charter 2%, shelf 2% |
| Late filing (NT) | 30d | 67 | listing_notice 28%, offering 21%, reverse_split_or_charter 12%, shelf 9%, delisted 3%, restatement 2% |
| Exchange deficiency notice | 30d | 93 | offering 16%, listing_notice 12%, shelf 12%, late_filing 11%, delisted 8%, reverse_split_or_charter 5%, restatement 1% |
| Minimum bid deficiency | 30d | 97 | offering 21%, listing_notice 19%, reverse_split_or_charter 19%, late_filing 12%, shelf 10%, delisted 2%, restatement 1% |
| MVLS deficiency | 30d | 29 | listing_notice 31%, offering 24%, late_filing 17%, shelf 14%, restatement 3%, reverse_split_or_charter 3% |
| Near $5M MVLS floor | 30d | 485 | offering 12%, listing_notice 8%, shelf 8%, reverse_split_or_charter 7%, late_filing 1%, delisted 1% |
| Near $5M MVLS floor | 90d | 30 | offering 57%, listing_notice 40%, reverse_split_or_charter 37%, late_filing 33%, shelf 27% |
| Negative equity | 30d | 318 | offering 16%, listing_notice 10%, reverse_split_or_charter 9%, shelf 7%, late_filing 3%, delisted 1%, restatement 0% |
| Negative equity | 90d | 48 | offering 42%, late_filing 40%, listing_notice 31%, reverse_split_or_charter 27%, shelf 23%, restatement 2% |
| Restatement (non-reliance) | 30d | 21 | offering 14%, late_filing 10%, listing_notice 5%, restatement 5%, reverse_split_or_charter 5%, shelf 5% |
| Officer/director change | 30d | 314 | offering 10%, shelf 7%, reverse_split_or_charter 7%, late_filing 4%, listing_notice 4%, delisted 2%, restatement 0% |
| PIPE | 30d | 117 | offering 35%, shelf 28%, listing_notice 14%, reverse_split_or_charter 14%, late_filing 12%, restatement 1% |
| Registered direct | 30d | 48 | offering 23%, shelf 21%, late_filing 6%, listing_notice 4%, reverse_split_or_charter 4%, delisted 2% |
| Reverse split | 30d | 381 | offering 27%, shelf 19%, listing_notice 16%, reverse_split_or_charter 14%, late_filing 13%, restatement 1%, delisted 0% |
| Holder rights modified | 30d | 59 | listing_notice 25%, late_filing 20%, offering 19%, reverse_split_or_charter 12%, shelf 7%, delisted 5% |
| Runway < 6 months | 30d | 1028 | offering 22%, reverse_split_or_charter 11%, shelf 10%, listing_notice 9%, late_filing 3%, delisted 1%, restatement 0% |
| Runway < 6 months | 90d | 223 | offering 51%, late_filing 40%, shelf 31%, listing_notice 28%, reverse_split_or_charter 24%, restatement 2%, delisted 0% |
| Runway < 6 months | 180d | 23 | late_filing 65%, listing_notice 56%, offering 48%, reverse_split_or_charter 44%, restatement 17%, shelf 13% |
| Runway 6–12 months | 30d | 548 | offering 12%, reverse_split_or_charter 6%, listing_notice 5%, shelf 5%, late_filing 1%, delisted 0%, restatement 0% |
| Runway 6–12 months | 90d | 42 | late_filing 29%, listing_notice 29%, offering 26%, reverse_split_or_charter 24%, shelf 19%, delisted 2%, restatement 2% |
| Share count +25% | 30d | 287 | offering 30%, shelf 19%, reverse_split_or_charter 14%, listing_notice 7%, late_filing 1%, restatement 0% |
| Share count +25% | 90d | 36 | offering 72%, shelf 44%, late_filing 33%, listing_notice 28%, reverse_split_or_charter 28%, delisted 3%, restatement 3% |
| Shelf effective | 30d | 110 | offering 30%, late_filing 10%, listing_notice 8%, reverse_split_or_charter 8%, shelf 8%, delisted 3% |
| Shelf filed | 30d | 128 | offering 29%, late_filing 13%, listing_notice 7%, reverse_split_or_charter 7%, shelf 5%, delisted 1% |
| Offering (424B) | 30d | 232 | offering 38%, reverse_split_or_charter 16%, late_filing 12%, shelf 9%, listing_notice 5% |
| 10% holder buying | 30d | 38 | late_filing 24%, reverse_split_or_charter 18%, listing_notice 16%, offering 16%, restatement 3%, shelf 3% |
| Unregistered sale | 30d | 172 | offering 43%, shelf 27%, reverse_split_or_charter 18%, late_filing 15%, listing_notice 10%, restatement 1% |
These are conditional frequencies, not predictions, and they feed back into the importance priors as the sample grows (calibration plan).